Do Big NFL Free Agent Signings Lead to Success?

For NFL teams, acquiring a star free agent is often a thrilling event, celebrated by executives, coaches, and fans alike. From the initial social media hints to the official announcements and team photo opportunities, the excitement is palpable. After all, who wouldn't want to secure a high-caliber player?

However, the question remains: Do these flashy signings always yield positive results? While key acquisitions have propelled some teams to Super Bowl victories—such as Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun for the 2024 Eagles, and Sam Darnold for the 2025 Seahawks—it's essential to evaluate how frequently teams reflect on these signings as wise investments.

To explore this, I analyzed the top 50 free agents by average annual salary from each offseason between 2013 and 2022, totaling 500 players. By utilizing data compiled by Spotrac, I assessed each player's performance against the expectations set by their previous performance and the contracts signed with their new teams.

Additionally, we can address intriguing questions such as whether specific types of players tend to perform better, if certain positions yield more successful free agent outcomes, and whether younger players have a better track record than their older counterparts. Furthermore, I will examine how the highest-paid deals fared over the past decade.

Evaluating free agent performance in the NFL can be challenging due to the diverse ways success can be measured across various positions. Surviving the guaranteed years of a contract may indicate success, but many shorter-term deals may only require one year of performance. Moreover, free agents are typically signed to start, meaning they will receive opportunities to play even if they don’t meet expectations.

Ultimately, I determined that assessing these deals requires a case-by-case analysis, attributing a numerical score between 0 and 6 to each player based on their performance in relation to the expectations set by their contracts. For instance, when Tom Brady signed with the Buccaneers, expectations were understandably higher than for Brian Hoyer's contract with the Texans.

In evaluating these players, I considered factors such as the duration of their starting roles, their performance relative to past levels, and whether they lived up to superstar status if paid accordingly. For example, Wan'Dale Robinson's four-year, $70 million contract with the Titans—where he is guaranteed $38 million over the first two years—illustrates a standard deal for a top-50 free agent. To achieve various performance grades, Robinson would need to meet specific benchmarks, such as consistently surpassing 1,000 receiving yards for a higher score.

Players can be graded as follows: A score of 6 denotes an All-Pro-caliber superstar, while a 5 represents a high-end starter who consistently exceeds contract value. A score of 4 indicates a steady starter who moderately exceeds expectations, and a 3 reflects a player who meets expectations. Meanwhile, a score of 2 signifies a player who disappoints, a scenario that can arise as teams may find more affordable talent through the draft.