Fantasy Baseball: Players to Avoid in 2026 Drafts

Formulating your own opinions on players in fantasy baseball is always encouraged, including those of a negative nature. After discussing the players I am most interested in drafting this season, I will now focus on the players I plan to avoid in 2026 drafts. It is important to note that there is always a point in the draft where a player could present relative value, so do not completely dismiss these players before the draft. Just be sure to determine your comfort level with them before finalizing your 2026 rosters.

Based on early expert-league results and average draft position (ADP), here are 15 players I recommend fading:

The San Francisco Giants may have one of the weakest defensive right sides of the infield, featuring Luis Arraez at second base and Rafael Devers at first. The team is also filled with first base and designated hitter options like Devers, Bryce Eldridge, and Jerar Encarnacion. While Arraez's contact skills are beneficial in points leagues, his mediocre defense and speed could limit his playing time, leading to more pinch-running and defensive replacement situations.

A popular breakout candidate, Kyle Bradish possesses impressive breaking pitches, including a slider and curveball, which enhance his statistical potential. However, he is still just 21 months and 54 professional innings removed from Tommy John surgery. Drafted as the 18th starting pitcher in NFBC Main Event leagues, this ranking seems overly optimistic given the possibility of workload management. I would prefer other pitchers in the same tier, such as George Kirby, Jesus Luzardo, or Dylan Cease.

Byron Buxton experienced a fortunate 2025 season, playing 126 games—his highest total in eight years—hitting 35 home runs, and going a perfect 24-for-24 in stolen bases. Nonetheless, he still faced a couple of short-term injuries, which serve as a reminder of his fragility. Safer alternatives like Randy Arozarena, Riley Greene, and Taylor Ward should be prioritized over Buxton.

While Aroldis Chapman's 2025 performance was historically remarkable, the factors contributing to that success make it improbable that he can replicate it. Mariano Rivera is the only reliever to achieve consecutive seasons with at least 30 saves and a 2.0 WAR after turning 37, and only 14 pitchers have accomplished it once after that age. Chapman's career-low .200 BABIP is likely unsustainable, suggesting his ERA could rise significantly, making his draft cost as a top closer seem excessive.

Rafael Devers does not face as much playing-time risk as Arraez, being one of only two players, alongside Aaron Judge, to hit at least 25 home runs with a 50% hard-hit rate over the past six full MLB seasons. However, Devers plays in a challenging hitting environment, has seen an increase in his strikeout rate over the past two seasons, and is having a difficult spring training.

Estevez has shown a concerning decline in fastball velocity this spring, averaging only 87.1 mph in his first two Cactus League appearances and 90.7 mph during his sole World Baseball Classic game, a significant drop from his 95.9 mph average during the 2025 season. While velocity isn't everything, Estevez has a history of lower spring numbers and has overperformed his peripherals in recent seasons.

Goodman possesses legitimate raw power, but maintaining a .278 batting average in 2026 seems unlikely, even with the advantages of Coors Field. He is known for being a free swinger, recording 225 strikeouts on non-strikes last year, and has a significant gap between his actual and expected batting averages. Players like Yainer Diaz and Francisco Alvarez could provide similar production at a lower cost.

Ryan Helsley's 2025 season deteriorated after his trade to Flushing, as his walk rate surged to 11.6% and he allowed four home runs and 13 extra-base hits in his final 22 appearances. Now with Baltimore, he may have more save opportunities, but he competes in a challenging division and a hitter-friendly environment. Concerns regarding his fastball velocity also persist, as it has decreased this spring.

Francisco Lindor is known for being a slow starter and is recovering from a hamate bone fracture sustained early in spring training. Although this injury may not affect his status for Opening Day, it could impact his power early in the season. With an average of 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases over the past three years, he is currently being drafted among the top 30 overall picks, which may be too high a price given the potential for better deals around May.

Ketel Marte is being drafted as a clear fantasy starter in both ESPN (199th overall ADP) and NFBC (175th) formats. While he is a 24-year-old with upside, he has not performed well enough at the MLB level to justify a significant investment. Having played only 187 games combined between majors and minors over the past two seasons highlights his injury concerns, and his 2025 hard-hit rate and expected weighted on-base average were both below league average.

While I want to believe that Josh Naylor can replicate last season's 30 stolen bases, his career stolen base rate of 85.9% and his manager's propensity to give green lights suggest he may not reach that number again. Relying on a player with poor sprint speed in all four of his MLB seasons to produce significant steals is unwise, and if Naylor regresses to a 25/13 (home runs and stolen bases) season, he would be comparable to Brandon Nimmo, who is being drafted two to three rounds later.

Peralta has consistently been a strikeout artist, being one of only two pitchers with at least 200 strikeouts in each of the last three seasons. However, his 2025 fantasy numbers benefitted from good fortune, as he posted the highest left-on-base percentage of his career and his expected ERA was nearly three-quarters of a run higher than his actual performance. Although he is in a more favorable environment with the Mets, this is inflating his price tag to the top 10 of the position.

Despite drafting him for just $2 in Tout Wars, I felt uncertain about it, especially considering he was valued at $18 in that same draft last year. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's first season in the U.S. was marred by a low strikeout rate and extensive time on the injured list, and his spring performance has not indicated a potential rebound. His statistics show nine walks out of 38 batters faced and a concerning hard-hit rate.

Similar to Buxton, counting on Trevor Story for consecutive healthy seasons is a risky bet. Last year marked the first time since 2018 that he avoided the injured list, yet he ranked in the 33rd percentile or lower in walk, strikeout, and chase rates, along with Statcast's expected weighted on-base average. His fantasy production heavily relies on playing time, and while his position in the lineup is advantageous, he must achieve health levels closer to his 2021 or 2025 seasons than his 2022-2024 years to replicate his success.

Strider's declining spring velocities are particularly concerning, as he has averaged only 94.5 mph with his fastball in three Grapefruit League starts, down from an impressive 281 strikeouts and an average of 97.2 mph three seasons ago.